Existing home sales drop big time in June

Posted at 1:30 p.m. on July 22, 2019

The Brillion News

MADISON – Sales of existing homes turned down sharply in June, which is traditionally the strongest month of the year for home sales, while prices continued to rise at well above the rate of inflation, according to the latest analysis of the housing market by the Wisconsin Realtors® Association (WRA).

June home sales fell 9.7 percent relative to June 2018, and the median price rose 10.3 percent to $215,000 over that same 12-month period. Comparing the first half of 2019 to that same period in 2018, sales dropped 5.1 percent, and the median price rose 7.7 percent to $195,000.

“Normally, a strong economy and low mortgage rates produce solid sales growth, but our persistent lack of homes for sale kept June sales well below last year’s levels,” said WRA Chairman Jean Stefaniak.

The strong demand for housing was fueled in part by record-setting low unemployment rates of just 2.8 percent for both April and May.

Although inventories do tend to rise during the peak sales periods, Wisconsin’s seller’s market continued in June, with just five months of supply. This was only slightly lower than June 2018 when inventories stood at 5.1 months.

“Inventories were especially tight in the larger cities in the state,” said Stefaniak. Specifically, the counties that comprise metropolitan areas, which are counties with cities of least 50,000 population, had just 4.1 months of supply in June. Counties with smaller towns and cities, which the U.S. Census defines as micropolitan areas of 10,000 to 49,999 persons, had relatively balanced markets with 5.8 months of available supply.

Finally, the small rural counties had the most supply at 8.6 months and would be considered a buyer’s market.

“We’ve been on a bit of a roller coaster with sales over the last few years, but the price appreciation has been consistent,” said WRA President & CEO Michael Theo.

Since January 2016, the year-over-year sales growth has ranged between minus 12.2 percent in December 2018 and 23.3 percent in November 2016. In contrast, prices have increased at an annual pace ranging from 3.2 percent in May 2016 to a high of 10.3 percent in June of this year.

“It’s no surprise that we’re seeing steady price increases with our strong demand and limited supply,” said Theo.

In fact, the statewide median price exceeded $200,000 for the first time on record in May, and that continued in June. It should be noted that WRA records date back to January 2007. Moreover, three of the six regions of the state were above that benchmark in June. The highest-priced region was the South Central region where the median price was $260,250. The median price was $230,000 in the Southeast region and $205,000 in the West.

“While affordability continues to slip, Wisconsin’s housing affordability remains well above the nation and the Midwest region,” said Theo.

The Wisconsin Affordability Index represents the fraction of the median-priced home that a buyer with median family income can afford to buy, assuming a 20 percent down payment and the remaining 80 percent financed through a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at current rates. The index slipped from 189 in June 2018 to 185 in June of this year.

“Even though home prices increased by double-digit margins over the last year, mortgage rates dipped below 4.0 percent, so we only saw a minor drop in affordability,” said Theo.

The last time mortgage rates were below 4 percent was June 2017, and it stood at 3.8 percent this past June.

The economic expansion has now moved into its 11th year, which makes this recovery the longest in post-war history. 

A more detailed story, with local figures, will appear in the July 25 print edition of The Brillion News.